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Prediction for CME (2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-21T16:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32090/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. STEREO A COR2 is in a data gap during this event. The source of this CME appears to be an M1.0 flare from AR13757 (N15E20) peaking at 2024-07-21T16:31Z. Filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with significant northward deflection. The bulk of the CME is likely the brighter portion visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 difference imagery to the NE. The fainter halo portion is possibly associated with this event, though there is some uncertainty due to a lack of visible dimming to the south of the source location.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T21:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note: 
predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-23T23:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60%
Max Kp Range: 4-6
Lead Time: 19.15 hour(s)
Difference: -1.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-07-23T00:39Z
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